10 - Good News and Bad News

The good news is that I am well up in my trading, the bad news is that I have been exercising absolutely no discipline and have been all over the shop in terms of P&L. I need to get more disciplined with what I am doing and that's what this blog is supposed to be all about...

Over the last week plus since my last update I have been up as much as 15% and then lost most of that and then regained about half or more, so I am up about 8-9%. I am looking for consistent smaller, but still aggressive gains - not this craziness! I will renew my efforts at discipline, and part of that exercise is to broadcast everything on twitter, etc., as it takes a bit of extra effort versus just clicking B&S on my trader.

Anyway, with that, here is today's trade plan:
EURUSD - I took a good chunk out of it yesterday, some of the best trading I have done, but still could have held a "runner" for far more profits on the short side. At the moment, I am thinking r/r of jumping back in on short side not attractive - looking for a small failed rally this morning to reshort for full 1.2800 test with stops above 1.2910 or lower depending on what kind of formation, if any, we get...

NZDUSD - can't believe this darn thing won't crumble - shorting it small this morning in the 65 area on that nice hourly reversal to open Europe with a stop above 95 or a time stop if nothing develops

USDCAD - making a wager that we have seen a small B-wave and now it is time for a C-wave back higher for a test close to parity - long at 0.9787 with a stop below 9750 and watching and waiting.

3 - Today's Trading Plan

Tremendous profits on open positions this morning (short AUDUSD, short NZDUSD, short EURUSD and long USDSEK). I brought back in half of the EURUSD and would look to short again around 1.2920, but I am traveling today. As such, I will hold shorts - looking to take half of AUDUSD off the table at around 1.0115 and hoping that that NZDUSD support gives way because there's lots of distance to travel there - maybe even to 0.8000. The USDSEK long is an experiment in trying to hold onto something strategic and I want to see if I can hold out for 7.00. My risk is very small there, especially now that it has broken well into profit.

I am somewhat concerned that I have lost focus on the day-trading part of my original plans, but I'm cooking up some ideas for tight-risk parameter trade setups on EURUSD only that I will hopefully be launching very soon. I am not at all satisfied with how I am communicating my positioning and standardizing what I am doing. Stay tuned.

A morning like today is dangerous - feels good because my convictions have been proven correct, but it is dangerous if I let it go to my head.

2 - Today's Trading Plan

Got lucky with the RBA cut overnight, will hold onto AUDUSD shorts for obvious reasons, looking toward bottom of range (sub 1.0200) before taking profits.

EURUSD is a mess - between rock and a hard place - feels treacherous with all the event risks up later this week. Might look .

Pivots and techs a bit pointless on the day for EURUSD.

NZDUSD and GBPUSD - for some reason I am maintaining short positions in these. NZDUSD only being held up by AUDNZD theme and GBPUSD looks bearish for a test toward 1.6000 if we stay below 1.6185 weekly pivot. Will like my short GBPUSD position better if we get back well below 1.6140 today....

1 - That's a wrap

Essentially ended the day back with my original position (short NZDUSD, short AUDUSD and short small GBPUSD again) and very slightly up on where I flushed everything earlier today in panic - today saw a a rehash of Bernanke B.S. and I actually think the USD survived this very well today. As well, this is the first of the month and I suspect some of the shenanigans on Friday and today is due to end of month/quarter - and beginning of same - flows. Still looking for USD to make a decent move stronger until proven otherwise.

AUDUSD is at a tipping point trend-wise (to downside). I will look to add if it is breaking lower post the RBA.

Over and out.

1 - Today's Trading Plan

Not much plan for today - I'm fully loaded on short NZDUSD , AUDUSD and GBPUSD hoping for follow through as indicated on Friday post. Dumb that I have so much NZDUSD on compared to AUDUSD when the latter is the one that is weakest, but thinking NZDUSD plays catchup if there is disappointment down at 0.8200 area.. I'll only cover if USD is selling off strongly intraday and makes a smart break lower in early Europe...

Have a good one!

Weekend comments

Got crazy late Friday - felt like the Thursday rally was turning wobbly so I got way short GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD and made back all of my losses for the week and then some - taking heavy position through the weekend as I especially feel NZDUSD going to get a wakeup call on Monday (locals were partying on late Saturday evening in NZ while AUDNZD spiking to new lows?

That NZDUSD reversal around the big big levels is very interesting. Will be happy to keep my three units short NZDUSD on Monday and look to add to my small short AUDUSD position for building something more strategic. If the latter pushes through recent 1.0325 lows, we're going to test 1.0175 and eventually through parity and all of that. If NZDUSD bites back through 0.8200, we're talking an 0.8000 test at minimum.

My GBPUSD shorts I will try to hold for a test of 1.6000.

28 - Hasty Update

Totally lost conviction in my trade plan formulated below - it's still a good exercise to formulate one, however. It's just that on second thought, the countermoves simply aren't big enough to make them as significant as I gave them credit for yet...

SOOOO.....I am out of my AUDUSD longs with small profit and may play EURUSD from short side if we see downside break, though I would prefer a reversal setup....